Friday, January 30, 2009

Implied Volitility Reflects Risk Premium

Implied volitility is typically greater than historical volitility. Why is that?

I suggest that reflects the value of a reduction of risk. 

What is worth more, a ticket for a 1 in 10 chance to earn $10, or a single dollar bill? It depends on how much money you have. If you have an un-ending money supply, you could buy an infinate number of tickets, and the value would be equal to the same number of dollar bills. 

But if you have a limited money supply, you might not want to take the risk. The value of risk reduction has evidence in insurance. If someone has an infinate money supply, insurance only makes sense if the insurance company has access to cheaper resources than you do; the reducion in risk is of no value. 

Similarly, stock option prices should incorporate the value of risk reduction whenever money supply is limited. In fact, the variance between historical and implied volititliy may be used to gauge the money supply.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Minumum Wage = Price Fixing

Minimum wage is price fixing. This price fixing hurts the American ecomony by preventing the meeting of supply to demand.

Protenctionist employment policies also hurt America. The demand that Mexicans exhibit for American jobs indicates a disequilibrim. 

In other words, Amarican un-skilled labor is over-priced. Minimum wage and closing the labor market to foreign competition artificially keep these prices to high. 

Here are the consequences:

1. Outsourcing: Many are moving their factories and services off-shore. This reduces demand for labor and makes the American economy less efficient.

2. High cost of living: Because unskilled labor is expensive, living in America is expensive. In the end, the high minimum wage is self perpetuating. If it were eliminated, the cost of living would go down, making the lower wage suitable.

In order for the labor market to be flexible and competitive, it needs to have artificial protection and price fixing removed from it.